Advice to the Prime Minister: Keep it Up!

Goodbye to 2025, Part I

What a difference a year can make in politics. Last year, Mark Carney would have enjoyed a relaxing Christmas in Ottawa as a private citizen with some personal ambition to run for office in his heart. This year, he spent Christmas weighed down by the burden of leadership as the Prime Minister of Canada. He was now faced with weighing the ongoing trade war with the United States alongside a meeting in Halifax with the Ukrainian President following weeks of heavy bombing from Russia. In between some family time he had to contemplate a new year that will undoubtedly be filled with more uncertainty and global challenges. A little more stressful Christmas in the Carney household this year I would bet.

It is also hard to believe that at this time last year Justin Trudeau was the Prime Minister of Canada. It was not until January 6, 2025, that he announced his resignation and the Liberal party began a leadership and political realignment the likes of which Canadian politics has never seen. After winning an uneventful leadership contest by an overwhelming margin, Prime Minister Carney began to swiftly and decisively jettison many of the central tenets of the Trudeau government despite having a caucus made up of Members of Parliament who had promoted these very tenets just months earlier. There was almost a zealousness in his actions focused at re-balancing the Liberal Party to the centre of Canadian politics.

I often miss public life, but I have to say it has been fun to watch this year unfold as an engaged citizen on the outside of elected politics. Many of the issues I cared deeply about before and during my time in politics - the Canadian Armed Forces, Arctic sovereignty, Canadian energy security, Indigenous reconciliation, a principled foreign policy - are all ‘above the fold’ issues in Canada today. The government is acting on all of them, and while there is warranted criticism as to why the issues were largely ignored over the last decade, in my view action today is more positive than frustration about inaction yesterday.

Given the rhetoric of the ‘51st state’ from the American President, the national unity challenges the country is facing and the state of the world at the moment, I do not hesitate in saying that I want our Prime Minister to succeed. This is why this year my end of year reflections essays will take the form as advice to our politicians from one of their former colleagues. The advice is sincere, but it is worth what they are paying for it. (Nothing)

Keep it Up!

I have been complimentary of many of the early moves made by the Prime Minister particularly his ability to take a more serious approach to dealing with the United States and other allies. This tone reset has been critical for the country after the erosion of our reputation and our relationships under Justin Trudeau. I have also been quite complimentary of Minister Tim Hodgson, who has been given the critical role of promoting Canadian natural resource projects at a time the country desperately needs them for both economic and national unity reasons. I got to know Tim years ago because of his passion to support Veterans and military families before I ran for office He was always complimentary of my public service because he knew I had the country’s best interests at heart. I know that is the same reason he stood for office, so I will always try to be complimentary of his efforts.

While some of my Conservative friends have been frustrated with my positive comments from time to time, I try to remind them that the Carney government are largely doing what we had advocated for many years. I have used a little joke at some of my public speaking events that I should ‘start charging royalties’ for the Liberal government’s use of my 2021 Secure the Future platform in 2025. This usually gets a few laughs, but it also explains why I have been cheering the government on at times. If conservatives believe a policy is only good for Canada when we propose to do it, we are being insincere and fueling cynicism about politics at a time our country needs a healthy dose of unity. This does not mean giving the Carney government a free ride, but it means being serious in the role of opposition and to always remember to be a patriot ahead of being a partisan. Canada needs this approach at this moment.

The first piece of advice I have to the Prime Minister is to keep doing what you are doing. There has been a reset in dialogue with the United States and in the strategic attention being paid by the government to critical issues facing the country. This strategic shift has been evident from day one with Prime Minister Carney and it should be applauded. An example I have used to illustrate this seriousness in some of my speaking engagements has been to show how the Prime Minister used the ten days he had in office in between winning the Liberal leadership and calling the general election. The PM took three trips in that short period of time. The first two trips were overseas to Paris and London. The third trip - and the only domestic tour he had before the election - was to Iqaluit, Nunavut for an Arctic sovereignty announcement. It was during that trip that he said this alongside Inuit leaders, northerners and members of the Canadian Armed Forces:

“Canada is, and forever will be, an Arctic nation, and we can never take our sovereignty and security in the region for granted. Our government will strengthen Canada’s Arctic security, bolster partnerships with our closest Allies, unleash the North’s economic potential, and reaffirm reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples. Canada will remain a strong, secure, and sovereign nation.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney, March 18, 2025

These ten days were a tour de force in my view and likely helped lead to his election victory. The Prime Minister visited the two founding nations of what became Canada to show clearly to the United States and the world that Canada has friends and allies who are of longer-standing than the United States. It sent a message that while Canada wants to repair relations with our neighbour and traditional trading and security partner, we will strongly resist the renewed sense of manifest destiny in Washington and deepen our alliances in Europe and around the world. Great stuff.

His domestic trip also sent a message of strategic seriousness. On the eve of what would be a challenging election, Carney did not travel to the vote rich ‘905’ Toronto suburbs or the lower mainland of British Columbia where there were critical ridings at play, but he went to a northern territory with one riding they were likely to lose. The Prime Minister traveled to the Arctic in his first days as Prime Minister, which contrasted with Justin Trudeau who did not visit a territory until well after a year in office. This sent a message to the world that Canada would take our Arctic sovereignty seriously and sent a message to northerners that the Prime Minister had their back. More great stuff.

Making Canada Serious Again

From the leadership win to the present day, I have to say that I agree with most of what the Prime Minister has done in large part because it is what I recommended should be done. This has been satisfying for a former politician who dared greatly to become Prime Minister but fell short.

I wrote an op-ed for the Financial Post shortly after the re-election of President Trump called Make Canada Serious Again. In this op-ed, a Substack essay and related social media posts, I tried to give an action plan for the Trudeau government in light of election outcome and given the animus I knew the Trump administration had for the Trudeau administration. I had been the Conservative critic during the NAFTA negotiations and tariff discussions of the first Trump term, so I knew where mistakes had been made and how they had underestimated the intentions of the Americans. While it was understandably critical, the op-ed and commentary were a sincere effort to put the best plan forward and the best interests of the country first.

The posts led to a longer interview in the National Post with Alberta-based political commentator Donna Kennedy-Glans focusing on the need for a bipartisan approach to Canada-US relations at this critical time in our history. I lamented the fact that when the Conservatives tried to offer this approach to the government back in 2017, we were rebuffed. Not only were our recommendations ignored, but any difference in opinion with the government on strategy for talks with the Americans were often turned into political attacks that questioned our loyalty to Canada. That stuck in my craw and I expressed this to Donna quite clearly in our interview:

“I’m a patriot,” O’Toole reflects sombrely. “I never liked people saying I’m not siding with my country. I want our country to win. I want us to be smart.”

I am happy to say that Mark Carney has been smart and we now have the potential to win again as a country. I have also taken some personal enjoyment in the fact that the Carney government has prioritized many of the items that I had raised in that piece. I was not the only voice calling for many of these moves, but the Trudeau/Freeland team had virtually ignored this advice until it was too late. The Carney government seemed to welcome the opinions from Premiers, business leaders and even former opposition leaders like me. For the first time in my memory, it started to feel like a true Team Canada approach to respond to the American provocations.

This is why my advice is to keep it up on all of these issues. The Team Canada approach now seems very similar to what Conservative voices have been recommending for many years. This has even led to a wider discussion amongst some pundits as to whether Mark Carney is actually governing like a Conservative. I will leave that to others to decide, but a quick scoring of the five priorities I outlined in that Financial Post op-ed would give the Carney government an A grade on their progress so far. The report card:

1. Canada has started to leverage energy security with the Americans as a way towards a deal on tariffs and has raised partnering on a rejuvenated Keystone XL as a proof point of our seriousness.

2. Canada is not only making the NATO 2% of GDP spending commitment in this fiscal year [ed note: WOW!], but the Carney government is committing to the 5% of GDP goal for defence and dual use infrastructure spending [ed. note: WOWx2!].

3. Canada has finally aligned with the US on all levels of tariffs against China on critical elements of the manufacturing economy involving steel, aluminum and the auto sector. The lack of alignment from Canada on this great power competition was the biggest irritant between Canada and the U.S. going back to the Obama administration. The Trudeau government finally got the message and began to move just months before the reelection of Trump in August 2024, but their intransigence before that was the most serious error going back to 2017. With these July 2025 moves, PM Carney is finally showing a true ‘Fortress North America’ approach to dealing with the Americans on manufacturing and core commodity trade.

4. Canada has taken the border seriously with major increases to the CBSA and assets deployed on the border. More importantly, the government has finally moved to address the more challenging issue of the abuse of the Canadian asylum claims (refugee) process. My op-ed mentioned the need to do this in a balanced way and it appears that this is finally happening after years of being ignored and politicized by politicians and others. This politicization has been far more detrimental to the immigration consensus than foreign students or Temporary Foreign Workers [ed. note: More on this in a future essay].

5. Finally, I think it is clear the Carney government has shown itself to be a serious and dependable ally after the Trudeau approach of contrasting themselves with the President for domestic political gain. As I said in the op-ed, disagreement with the Americans should be “shared behind closed doors and not on social media”. Thankfully, we are no longer seeing the “Welcome to Canada” tweets and posturing of before, but a more respectful and friendly dialogue between leaders. The Prime Minister should ignore juvenile accusations that he is ‘bootlicking’ by simply trying to have cordial relations with the President. After all, jobs and security are on the line, so people can stop their pearl clutching and realize that this is how serious negotiation and diplomacy works.

Needs Improvement: Buy Canadian

A year ago, I never would have expected giving a Liberal government an A grade on their performance in year one of the second Trump term, but as I said above, a year ago it looked like it would be a Trudeau Liberal government and not a Carney Liberal government. There is, however, one serious issue that I am marking as “Needs Improvement” on their report card. It is worth mentioning because this misstep is out of character for the very impressive narrative the Prime Minister has constructed around Canadian resilience and the ‘Build, baby, Build’ mentality he is promoting.

Perhaps the best example of this narrative was the Prime Minister’s evoking the idea of a “rupture” in relations between Canada and the United States. After over eighty years of closer integration and partnership, the Americans are forcing us to accept a harsh new reality. As the Prime Minister mentioned, the relationship will never be the same for the next few decades even as we attempt to repair the relationship in the short term. I agree with him.

With this in mind, the Prime Minister must not step back from his commitment to building sovereign Canadian capability and resilience in the face of American actions and to ensure our success in this uncertain time. His commitment to doubling non-US exports, building major project infrastructure from coast to coast and rebuilding the capability of our military must remain central goals of his government, and all of this must be done by building up Canadian capability through our businesses, our workers and our agencies and institutions.

This is why the quiet announcement of the government’s “Buy Canadian” strategy in the Ottawa doldrums just before Christmas is so concerning. This pre-Christmas news drop period is often done for controversial issues or to test ‘in progress’ policies before the return of parliament and regular scrutiny. Since the policy actually runs contrary to the central message of a resilient Canada that is the cornerstone of the Carney government’s first first year in office, I hope this news drop was to test the waters and that the government will come to its senses and make changes.

The major problem with this policy is that it does not follow the most obvious model that would determine whether something is “Canadian” for purposes of trade and procurement decisions. Three essential elements should be used to define whether something is Canadian or not. Ownership, control and intellectual property (IP). Is the corporation owned or controlled by Canadians, and is the IP held in Canada? This should be the first part of any Buy Canadian strategy. Is there a domestic player that can fulfill a strategic need for Canada? This should be the question asked before all other considerations like cost, competition and trade agreements come into play.

It is important to remember that countries are permitted to show a domestic preference for defence and security related procurement decisions. This is how Canada could build our domestic shipbuilding industry through the National Shipbuilding Strategy in accordance with World Trade Organization rules. It also explains why President Trump relies on his 232 tariffs from the Trade Expansion Act, 1962 that allows the President to impose trade restrictions if imports “threaten to impair the national security” of the United States. All countries do this.

The policy announced by Minister Lightbound on December 16, 2025 is not a ‘Buy Canadian’ policy. Instead, it reads like a well intentioned update to existing procurement policies focused at increasing Canadian content through the use of “Canadian-produced materials” or by integrating more Canadian suppliers into global supply chains. The Minister even acknowledged that the policy will allow foreign-controlled multinationals to qualify as “Canadian” simply by having a subsidiary that employs people in Canada.

In many ways, this new Buy Canadian policy simply perpetuates the same branch plant vulnerabilities to our economy that is causing us challenges right now in the automotive sector. It seems to ignore the warning the Prime Minister gave to the country just a few months ago:

“Many of our former strengths based on our close ties to America have become our vulnerabilities.”

Prime Minister Carney, Canadian Club address November 7, 2025

We know that General Motors, Ford, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and other multinational corporations that have subsidiaries in Canada are American companies. We know that they have and will comply with American policy and all political direction from the President without hesitation. We should know that in this political environment we cannot rely on and foreign corporation in the same way we have in the past. We need only think back to the N-95 mask controversy when President Trump refused to allow a 3M plant in Michigan fulfill its orders to its Canadian subsidiary and other customers on the other side of the border.

I respect the employment and investment these subsidiaries bring to the Canadian economy. Heck, I grew up with a father who worked for GM Canada and I worked for Procter & Gamble Canada for many years and remain a loyal customer to both companies, but to call these subsidiaries “Canadian” is both disingenuous and unstrategic.

With the state of play in the United States being what it is, this Buy Canadian policy does not adequately respond to the need we are facing. It also falls well short of the Prime Minister’s calls to action for Canadians. I know that some senior civil servants are worried about the capability of our domestic economy to meet our urgent needs, but I want them to have more faith in Canadian innovation and ingenuity. This policy can be easily changed by having a two-step approach with the first step consisting of an assessment based on Ownership, Control and IP. Only after that initial screen is conducted should the next step occur that considers the production value of subsidiaries and the use of Canadian materials as elements of the Buy Canadian strategy. At this hinge moment we must realize that we can only rely on Canadian players and our policies and our spending must prioritize them to help them scale up to meet our needs.

Now is the time for a Canada that “ventures farther, builds faster, and dreams bigger than anyone expects”¹. Let’s rise to meet the moment.

1. Prime Minister Carney, quoting Eliot Pence from his essay The Canoe and the Crown: Canada’s Past - and Its Path Forward. Taken from: https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/speeches/2025/10/22/prime-ministers-live-address-canadas-plan-build-stronger-economy-advance#:~:text=Technological%20change%20is%20accelerating.,%2C%20they’re%20a%20rupture.