Goodbye to 2023, Part 2
A Look Back at my Notions for the New Year
I ended 2022 with a series of essays on issues that I thought were important to follow throughout the new year. They were not really put forward as ‘predictions for the new year’, but were issues that I personally believed were worth highlighting so Canadians could understand why I thought they mattered. Before I outline the issues that I think are important to track for 2024, I wanted to do a look back at the issues from last year and see where we ended up. So, this is the first of a few Substacks looking back at the issues I outlined a year ago.
Profanity Flags and Political Polarization
My first ‘Notion for the New Year’ spoke to the issue of political polarization as represented by the rise in profanity-laden Trudeau flags I had seen across the country. This essay ended up being my most widely-read Substack ever and evoked quite a range of responses. The fact that the essay gained a lot of attention had more to do with political mischief than it did with my modest following on this platform. Many Liberal party supporters pushed out the essay because they viewed it as being critical of some conservatives, but they seemed to miss (or ignore) the wider message about polarization on left and right.
I was indeed critical of people proclaiming to be ‘conservative’ while they engaged in anti-social actions. The purpose of the essay was an effort to remind people that this type of behaviour runs contrary to what it means to be an ordered liberty conservative. The wider message, however, was that polarization was happening on left and right as the two sides focused more on scaring their supporters about their opponents than on debating the issues facing the country. The Liberal party under Justin Trudeau has turned this approach into an artform and that has been a major driver of polarization. In many ways, the demonization of unvaccinated Canadians during the pandemic led to some of the rage that powered the blockades and growth of the profanity flags. Two wrongs do not make a right, so all politicians have a role to play in reducing the level of division and polarization in our society.
2024 Update
A year later, I can safely say that my hope to see “fewer profanity laden Trudeau flags” did come to pass in 2023. I think that levels of polarization in Canada remain about the same as a year ago and that is positive. You may be scratching your head at this conclusion and thinking to yourself that you still see these flags and bumper stickers across the country. You are right, of course, but that is not how I measure success on this issue.
Justin Trudeau’s popularity took a massive nose-dive in 2023 to the point that many people are speculating that he might leave office this year. Both his personal polling numbers and the Liberal party polling numbers have dropped significantly over the course of 2023. The Liberals are down about 8-10 points in voting intention and this support has shifted over to the Conservatives leading to an almost 20-point gap between the parties by the end of the year. This massive increase in voter intention towards the Conservatives has been the major news story of 2023. It has also occurred without any noticeable increase in flags, blockades or any other overt signs of increased polarization.
Swing voters are just done with the Trudeau government. Full stop. They are not blockading bridges, nor are they hoisting profanity flags in front of their home. A significant number of Canadians are simply tired of the policies and/or the persona of Justin Trudeau and plan to vote Conservative in the next election. As a Conservative, I am very happy to see this change for both partisan and personal reasons. I believe that the suburban swing voters who decide elections in this country are turning on Justin Trudeau, but they are not turning into angry people. I am happy for my party, but I am even more relieved to see that this swing in support has not come with any discernable increase in division. If these polling numbers stay this way, Canada will have an orderly transfer of power. This is the hallmark of a healthy democracy, which should make ordered liberty conservatives happy for more than just the result.
Postscript
The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer suggested that Canada is nowhere near as polarized as the United States and the U.S. will experience a very divisive presidential election this year. Will the tensions and some of the issues from that race ripple into Canada? That is the big question this year. The Canadian economy is not doing as well as the U.S. and housing and cost of living issues are causing considerable stress on Canadian families, but interest rates are predicted to go down this year and inflation seems to be stabilizing. These are positive signs given that economic pressures are a leading cause of polarization. It will be interesting to see what 2024 holds for Canada.
Canada faces something of a "Hobson's Choice". Trudeau is a disaster who has to go. Pierre is worse.
The guy running in your riding for the cpc is a far right maga conspiracy theorist who knows nothing about Durham region. Do you support this?