Goodbye to 2023, Part 3

Resolve for Ukraine

The second essay that I published last year was on the topic of the war in Ukraine. ‘Resolve for Ukraine in 2023’ was one part call to action - to ensure that Canadians did not forget the fighting taking place across the Atlantic - and another part a warning on the issue. I feared that citizens in the west that were feeling the pinch of a cost of living crisis might succumb to the duel forces of fatigue and misinformation leading to the risk that the west could reduce their levels of diplomatic and financial support for the Ukrainian war effort.

Canada must equally demonstrate our resolve towards this common freedom. Putin is counting on the west to start to waiver in the new year and Russian misinformation campaigns will pounce upon the small cracks that might appear in our resolve. You will see many efforts by Russia to sow discord and attempt to force an unacceptable resolution upon Ukraine.

A stalemate can lead to a lack of attention in countries not directly impacted by war and that is exactly what happened in 2023. The fighting is far from our shores and despite the valiant efforts of the Ukrainian Canadian diaspora to keep the war in the headlines, it is slipping out of sight in Canada after almost two years of fighting. The Ukrainian counteroffensive did not lead to the gains of territory that were hoped for and Russia has been slowly regaining some territory. This is an inevitable result when Vladimir Putin is callously prepared to spend as much Russian blood and treasure that he sees fit to pursue his aggression. To get a sense for the utter disregard the Russian military has for the life of its conscripted soldiers, listen to a Canadian sniper fighting in Ukraine discuss his chilling experiences on the ground.

I am sad to report that over the course of the year the west did start to waiver in its support for Ukraine and divisions in our society on the issue are beginning to deepen. This is a deeply troubling way to begin 2024. Victory for Ukraine hinges on western support and it should not be forgotten that support for Ukraine is also a litmus test for the wider western alliance. We cannot lose sight of the fact that their fight is actually our fight too. Will the west support Ukraine’s stand against Russian aggression, or will we fail to do so because of misinformation driven fatigue? Other authoritarian regimes will be watching the resolve of the west closely in 2024.

Western ‘Attention Deficit Disorder’

Scottish historian Niall Ferguson has written extensively about the fact that western countries suffer from what he describes as an “attention deficit disorder” when it comes to international events and conflict. Our society and its social media driven news cycle has produced a populace that engages with an issue for a few weeks only to lose interest and look to other topics. That was certainly the case with the west in the second half of 2023 when there was dramatically more news coverage of Taylor Swift’s sell out concert tour than there was about the war in Ukraine. The Ferguson theory was confirmed when Time Magazine named her Newsmaker of the Year after having bestowed the title to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the year before.

The danger of this western attention deficit disorder is that it has provided additional time for Putin’s misinformation efforts to take root in western countries. The stalemate on the battlefield has not extended to the internet, where the fruits of Russian misinformation campaign continues to grow and deepen its influence on western media coverage, academia and politics. This is contributing to the erosion in the resolve needed for the west to help Ukraine win the war, or at least not lose it.

Republicans in the United States are now trying to tie military and financial support for Ukraine with domestic border security issues. Whether this is an effort to stall aid for Ukraine completely, or is actually a crafty strategy to connect their support for Ukraine with a more popular domestic issue to mollify their base remains to be seen. It is safe to say, however, that large portions of the political ‘base’ for the Republican party has already soured on Ukraine and that complicates the western alliance. Years of Russian propaganda narratives about ‘Ukrainian Nazis’, rampant corruption or fears of another ‘forever war’ play into natural impulses for many Americans to be isolationist. This is particularly the case when there are regions of the country that are struggling with poverty, violence and a variety of rural-urban divides. When times are tight economically, it is hard to argue against the ‘we have problems at home that need our money’ position that many voices in the media and politics put forward.

Dull Sword and Flimsy Shield

Unfortunately, we are also seeing fatigue and misinformation seep into Canadian media and politics as well. I was disappointed by both the Liberals and Conservatives this fall when it came to Ukraine. As I mentioned in my last Substack, Canadians have been souring on Prime Minister Trudeau. In 2023, he tried on a few occasions to show leadership by using the war in Ukraine as both a political sword and shield. The Trudeau government announced military assistance and claims the total value of all of their promises in their talking points yet much of the support has not been delivered. His sword is very dull because these failures to send military support for the war effort comes directly from a lack of political will or due to passing off ‘ordering’ equipment as ‘delivering’ equipment.

Instead of delivering the military support Ukraine desperately needs, the Trudeau government has chosen symbolism instead. This came in the form of a virtually meaningless update to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Canada has with Ukraine. I was involved in this FTA as Parliamentary Secretary in 2014 in the final years it was being negotiated by the Harper government. In fairness, the Trudeau government supported these efforts and brought the agreement into force a few years later. This ‘update’ to the FTA is so light on substance that it is actually a patronizing show of symbolic support for an ally at a time of war. I am quite sure that President Zelensky has not been begging the west for more “inclusive trade” amendments to existing trade deals. Ukraine needs armored vehicles, ammunition and money. Canada can and should supply all three.

Even though the FTA update was a symbolic measure to draw attention away from a lack of commitment to supply military equipment, I was disappointed to see the Conservatives take the bait on this political wedge. I understand that the next election is gearing up to be a referendum on the carbon tax, but it could have been possible to criticize the empty symbolism of the bill and its language on carbon pricing in debate while still voting for it in the end. I can understand the reason for not disrupting the narrative of the next election, but when a friend is at war showing steadfast solidarity should take priority.

The use of the war in Ukraine as a shield by the Trudeau government also led to a major embarrassment in 2023. There is no better way for an unpopular Prime Minister to improve flagging poll numbers than to stand shoulder to shoulder with a compelling wartime leader. Unfortunately, this event backfired and led to the most embarrassing international diplomatic incident involving Canada since the Prime Minister danced his way across India in 2018. Following Zelensky’s speech in the House of Commons, the Speaker paid tribute to an improperly vetted WWII Veteran and a standing ovation was given by everyone in attendance to someone who had fought with the Nazis. Sadly, far from just being an embarrassing breach of protocol by the Prime Minister hosting the visit, this gaffe was seen around the world and provided Putin with an indirect boost to his misinformation efforts. The political shield ended up being quite flimsy and caused more problems for Canada and Ukraine.

Normalization of Misinformation

In Canada, we are also beginning to see the Russian misinformation efforts gain serious traction online and they are also receiving indirect support from sources that should know better. More and more voices on social media are echoing the same anti-Ukraine commentary that we see in the U.S. Most of these online voices are part of the political right and most have clearly been influenced by Russian propaganda. This is very concerning because, over time, conspiracy theories or propaganda narratives become normalized when you see more and more people you know sharing them. This is repetition bias in action and it is particularly acute when the repetition of information comes from trusted friends or when a well-known personality confirms elements of the narrative. I saw this firsthand in my own riding in my final months as MP when people who had previously ignored anti-Ukraine messages on social media suddenly had questions for me following commentary from Tucker Carlson. With a little personal effort and a dose of reality, most of these people could be convinced that the claims were incorrect, but it shows the danger of long exposure to misinformation.

2023 ended with the most troubling display I have seen yet, when my family in Nova Scotia sent me a column on Canada’s role in the war in Ukraine. Written by Canadian veteran and military commentator Scott Taylor, this opinion column was full of alarming errors and themes based on propaganda. This was very disturbing considering it was written by a reputable source on Canadian military issues. I was very disappointed to see this on a personal level, as I have admired Mr. Taylor’s support for the troops and his own path from the ranks of the army to the ranks of military commentators since I was a cadet at the RMC. I didn’t always agree with his perspectives, but I certainly admired his dedication and panache.

In this column, however, Taylor leant credibility to the central plank of the Putin information warfare machine at a time when these propaganda narratives are a real problem online. His article leads readers to believe that the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) has been knowingly and willingly training neo-nazis. To suggest that the CAF “should not” do something implies that it is knowingly doing it. The column then leaves the impression that neo-nazi extremism is rampant in the Ukrainian military before ending with the loaded statement that “[t]o not stipulate a ‘no nazi’ policy would be an erosion of Canadian values”.

This headline, the content of the column and conclusion are all false on their face and deeply troubling considering the source. The fact that it got by the editors at the Chronicle Herald is concerning, but is more likely the result of challenges faced by traditional media. The once mighty Chronicle Herald is now just an online paper. Regardless, the Taylor column is built upon the foundation of a Russian propaganda narrative that equates support for Ukraine with support for neo-nazis. It is this very propaganda narrative that Putin has used to justify his illegal invasion. He invaded to ‘denazify Ukraine’. This Putin justification for the war has been consistently debunked and deeply criticized by leading experts and political leaders for the last two years, but still it echoes across the internet.

Taylor knows that the CAF is not training neo-nazis because he casually mentions the official policy before adding that the CAF approach is a “total cop out”. The truth is that the CAF is trained and expected to screen out any extremists by identifiable uniforms, insignia or through their conduct. In fact, the CAF has similar expectations with respect to screening out extremists in Canada as well. The effectiveness of this approach has been questioned by groups like the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center to ensure it is rigorously followed. It is appropriate to question how effectively the policy is being applied and highlight instances that call the policy into question, but it is completely irresponsible to suggest that there is no such policy or that it is being ignored.

More troubling is the impression left in the column that the neo-nazi problem in Ukraine is a massive issue and that Canada is being willfully blind to it. This is where I believe that the former soldier doesn’t realize that he has fallen victim to propaganda himself. Taylor talks about the infamous Azov Battalion and makes the connection to ultra-nationalist extremism. This battalion is the favourite proof point held up by many anti-Ukraine voices on social media suggesting that support for Ukraine is actually support for hordes of neo-nazis. This is textbook Putin propaganda that does not hold up to any serious scrutiny.

I have been personally tracking this issue since 2014/15 when I first started getting criticized by strange accounts online whenever I posted photos of my support for Ukrainian-Canadian groups or visiting Ukrainian political officials. These accounts would claim I was meeting with neo-nazis and link to a range of bizarre websites and articles. Regardless of whether the person I was meeting with was Canadian or Ukrainian, these troll-like accounts would claim they were followers of the long dead WWII Ukrainian figure Stepan Bandera. I learned how Russian propaganda against Ukraine was rooted in connecting any element of the modern Ukrainian state with World War II era Nazi collaborators. Over time, this propaganda campaign was expanded to also include the Azov Battalion as part of a grand narrative that claims that all Ukrainian military leaders and elected officials are secretly nazis. Ironically, this decades long information warfare campaign did not even change dramatically when Ukrainians elected Zelensky, who is Jewish.

“Ukraine has a small, right-wing nationalist contingent like many countries, including France, Germany, the USA, and — not least — Russia…Neo-Nazi elements are not present in Zelensky’s government to the best of my knowledge. In my professional view, the alleged threat of neo-Nazism in Ukraine and genocide against ethnic Russians there (Putin used to mention Ukrainian Jews, but he dropped that line after a Jew was elected president), is simply propaganda.”

Professor Benjamin Nathans, University of Pennsylvania, expert on Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union and modern European Jewish history

The Azov Battalion is a group of ultra-nationalist Ukrainian militia fighters and some of their members do have extreme views, but to suggest that they are anything other than a infinitesimally small number of soldiers in Ukraine is to mislead people in the extreme. The misinformation campaign involving the Azov Battalion has been debunked and this can be researched quite easily. The Azov Battalion numbers in the range of 1 000 soldiers and reports from a few years ago stated that 10-20% of the soldiers professed some degree of neo-nazi beliefs. This is troubling, but when you consider the approximately 500,000 or more soldiers fighting for Ukraine, this represents 0.04% of Ukrainian troops. Given that Canada has only trained a small portion of Ukrainian soldiers, perhaps Taylor’s headline should have read “CAF should review whether 0.0002% of soldiers they trained violated their policy to not train extremists”.

Call out Misinformation

Canadians have performed an admirable job training thousands of Ukrainian soldiers under Operation Unifier since 2015. When combined with our NATO deployment under Operation Reassurance, thousands of Canadian men and women in uniform and hundreds of our diplomats have been part of NATO deployments and training efforts in support of Ukraine at a critical time in world history. These patriotic Canadians and our allies in Ukraine deserve better than columns like this.

I know that Scott Taylor is a veteran who cares about the CAF, so I hope he starts 2024 with a little self-reflection. The online mood leads many people to just yell back at any criticism, but I hope he does not try and justify such a poor column with more obscure sources or one off articles. I will gladly buy him a beer or lunch if he just strives to be better because I respect his service and many years of covering military issues.

This essay will likely get pushback from people who have already bought into the propaganda narratives and don’t want to admit it. This is the insidious nature of information warfare. People do not see the propaganda for what it is and people that do are likely reluctant to confront the loud voices pushing it online. The result is more confusion, more repetition bias and more division. Putin is counting on all of this and relishes the fact that division will lead to disengagement by the west on the issue of support for Ukraine. Therefore, we must rededicate our resolve for our Ukrainian friends this year and remember that strength and unity of the free nations of the west has always been the best way to temper Russian aggression. We would do well to remember the advice from President John F. Kennedy in the heart of the Cold War when he addressed the Canadian Parliament in May 1961:

Our opponents are watching to see if we in the West are divided. They take courage when we are. We must not let them be deceived or in doubt about our willingness to maintain our own freedom.