Resolve for Ukraine in 2023
Notions for the New Year, Part II
I have always been a great admirer of Sir Winston Churchill. His wartime service as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in the dark days of the Second World War is the gold standard of leadership. He boldly faced adversity and inspired his country - and the world - in the process. His speeches personified wartime leadership by stirring emotion and galvanizing the public behind his message. As Edward R. Morrow once said, Churchill “mobilized the English language and sent it into battle” (President Kennedy later borrowed the phrase).
There were a lot of fitting comparisons in the last week between Churchill’s 1941 address to the United States Congress and the recent speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the same chamber. Both were speeches to Congress by wartime leaders. Both took personal risks to travel across the Atlantic to reinforce their critical alliance with the Americans. Both leaders truly spoke for their nation at that moment in time, as their citizenry were resolutely united behind them. The main difference between the two speeches, of course, is that Russia was a key ally to Churchill in 1941 and Zelensky is presently facing a Russian enemy under the leadership of Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky’s speech came on the heels of great Ukrainian gains on the battlefield in recent months. The goal of his speech was to ensure that his American audience understood why the tide has been turning in the war. While the west had not supplied the no-fly zone that Ukraine had asked for in the early months of the conflict, the sharing of sophisticated rocket and artillery technology from the United States has been key to the Ukrainian Army retaking more than 50% of the territory lost to Russia. Zelensky knows that victory for Ukraine will only come if the tremendous bravery of the Ukrainian people is reinforced by American resolve to stay in the fight.
“Our two nations are allies in this battle. And next year will be a turning point. I know it. The point when Ukrainian courage and American resolve must guarantee the future of our common freedom, the freedom of people who stand for their values.”
Canada must equally demonstrate our resolve towards this common freedom. Putin is counting on the west to start to waiver in the new year and Russian misinformation campaigns will pounce upon the small cracks that might appear in our resolve. You will see many efforts by Russia to sow discord and attempt to force an unacceptable resolution upon Ukraine. The largest risk of a crack in western resolve will come with an economic slowdown in the new year that will cause significant financial and social stress. General fatigue with the war is already being felt, so financial pressures will only make that worse. And, of course, unforeseen events (‘events, dear boy, events’) will no doubt also complicate the picture in the new year.
Western resolve will be tested in 2023, so we must keep in mind the sage advice from Sir Winston Churchill when it comes to facing down Russia.
“From what I have seen of our Russian friends and Allies during the war, I am convinced that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness.”
- Sir Winston Churchill, Sinews of Peace (1946)
Russia only responds to strength. A lack of resolve will only fuel their aggression. This was Sir Winston’s warning to the United States and its allies in a speech he delivered as Leader of the Opposition after the war. This warning is just as important today with Russia being led by a dictatorial leader who wants to return to that era of Soviet dominance.
The Sinews of Peace speech is also known as the “Iron Curtain” speech because that phrase marked one of the key early dates in the Cold War. The need to show strength in the face of a Russian threat is a lesson that the west should know very well by now. It gave birth to NATO and was the post-World War II international order. And in the case of Canada, the Russian threat gave birth to the Permanent Joint Board of Defence, NORAD and almost all of our existing defence and security infrastructure. Faltering in our resolve to support Ukraine against the Russian threat should not be an option, so Canada must step up our efforts in 2023.
The Trudeau government must actually make good on some of their positive announcements that have not been followed through on. Canada must deliver to Ukraine what we have already promised. From Light Armoured Vehicles to other armaments to training, medical and other means of support, Canada can make a real difference this year if we step up and deliver quickly while the wind is in Ukraine’s sails. We must also be very conscious of the fact that Russian disinformation platoons will be regularly deploying across our social media channels trying to cause and exploit cracks in our resolve. There must be an all-party effort to stand up against these attempts at foreign interference.
A final note is a personal one for me. I have been truly blessed to learn so much about Ukraine, its people and its rich history thanks to many incredible friends in the Ukrainian-Canadian community. Whether it was the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, the League of Ukrainian Canadians or friends from the Ukrainian-Canadian community in Oshawa, my resolve has been empowered through their advice and support. This has especially been the case with my close friend and fellow RMC grad Ihor Kozak. Ihor organized my first political event ever as a nomination contestant in 2012 at the Dnipro Ukrainian Hall in Oshawa. In 2014, he helped the Conservative government verify that some of the very first non-lethal military shipments to Ukraine made it to the frontlines and were not diverted. And when I was Veterans Minister, Ihor helped ensure that the 2017 Invictus Games in Toronto included Ukraine. I could not have been a steadfast friend without Ihor and the entire community. Thank you.
In 2023, I pledge to continue my work with the Ukrainian-Canadian community to ensure that Canada maintains our resolve. Slava Ukraini!
Our present government has actually done an ok job of supporting Ukraine, partly because it’s smart politics in a nation like ours, and also because Deputy PM Freeland is smart, tenacious and Ukrainian (and would probably make a decent PM, and I’m saying that as someone whose never, ever voted LPC).
What worries me is a future CPC government that might receive significant electoral support from those individuals you spoke about in your last piece and, more importantly, might contain quite a few MPs whose personal re-election depends entirely on those same conspiracy-driven types.
As in the USA, the tinfoil hat brigade is far stronger on the political right (not to say the left doesn’t have just as many - they’re just further from the levers of power), and it’s them who I consistently see ranting on against Ukraine, as your own comment section demonstrates.
Yet another reason to steer the CPC back from its current populist trajectory to moderate conservatism.
Hon O'toole, I agree with you that the West must stand with resolve. My concern is Russia is banking on the west getting bored with "the long game". You referenced a CBC link written in Sept 2022, my questions are specific to Canada's contribution of battlefield useful weapons. I CARE about the Ukraine WINNING in those eastern oblasts (I remind all, they have been fighting since 2014):
QUOTED FROM CBC:
Last June, the Liberal government promised to deliver 39 armoured troop carriers (ACSVs) to Ukraine — vehicles that have no weapons. The first few of those vehicles were shipped recently by the manufacturer, GDLS Land Systems Canada of London, Ont. MM-Have all these ACSVs been delivered?
The Ukrainians say they need a fighting vehicle "with a 25 millimetre chaingun," which is the main armament on a LAV VI and the older (now decommissioned) LAV III, which the Canadian army used in Afghanistan. MM-WELL? Will Canada provide the LAV VI?
Ukraine is also asking Canada to once again dip into its stock of M-777 howitzers and to supply more shells and winter clothing for their troops, the sources said.
MM: As a Canadian, I want Russia to LOSE these oblasts, I fully respect Canada's military with regard to training and tactics. That said, I want a steady stream of effective, offensive weapons so the Ukrainians can kick the Russians off that land bridge to Crimea.
Thanks in advance