Mr O’Toole has once again provided detailed analysis and information on the fast approaching Trump presidency. That as their closest neighbour and ally, Canada has sunk to a twin position with Mexico tells us how badly the Liberal government has bungled refugees, the border, national defense and our GDP where it’s sinking rate will be hard pressed to withstand Trump tariffs. As stated, we can only hope PM Trudeau will put Canada ahead of his inglorious ego and resign. The sooner we see a change in both parties and leadership, the sooner we can begin repairing our alliance with the U S.
The final comment is a troubling observation that has a lot of merit and a lot of misery to potentially foist upon the heads of western Canadians who are susceptible to the vindictive nature of Liberal politics.
If Trudeau wants to play the “tough” card for the political benefit, then an honest observation would be to acknowledge that it’s central Canadian voters who are being wooed. But if trade-offs are required for the political optics to win electoral support then the counterpoint to central Canadian interests are those of us west of Winnipeg who refuse to send Liberal MPs to Ottawa.
Much of the energy, natural resource and agricultural sector is based in supply/demand fundamentals. These are very important sectors of the diversified western Canada economy. Right now the supply/demand fundamentals have brought about the greatest market for live beef and beef products in my living memory. Economists who are analyzing the cattle on feed numbers and the national cowherd in Canada and the US predict strong market fundamentals for the next three years.
Quite frankly, I can see our Liberal government sacrificing the beef market, allowing huge tariffs that will crater the industry and deprive hard working ranchers a profit window that they have worked hard to achieve.
I do t think anything Trudeau does will succeed in wooing eastern voters. I can’t answer for Quebec mind you. Furthermore, Canadians need to remember we are a nation coast to coast, and sacrificing any province is not in our best interests. We need to stand up together for our great nation and not fracture ourselves by voting for selective self interest. Alberta’s economic achievements strengthen our nation. As does Ontario manufacturing and Maritimes oil and fishing and BC softwood, to name a few areas.
Why do you say so? For sure les régions are their own demographic. Eastern Townships are not Saguenay. Do you think it will be an anti-immigration sentiment?
Thank you for that detailed and somewhat reassuring explanation and prediction for what may face us with the incoming Trump administration. I expect that you are right with respect to tariffs on our aluminum, steel and energy products. I also agree that Trudeau will resign and likely by Wednesday, January 8 when the caucus will be meeting unless he eats some humble pie and manages to strike some further deal with Singh adding even more to our ballooning deficit all to save his sorry ass but under the guise of putting country before politics. If there is a leadership race, the latest Angus Reid poll shows the party would get the biggest jump in the polls with Ms Freeland as the next leader. Word is both she and Mark Carney are making many phone calls to Liberal MPs. Since she and Carney are old family friends with Carney being godfather to one of her children, I’m wondering if together they aren’t planning some sort of coup. Who knows? All’s fair in love and war as they say. What Canada doesn’t need right now is a months long Liberal leadership race that I believe would do nothing to boost anyone’s confidence in the party as it would bring out all sorts of internecine rivalries that so far have remained shielded for the most part from public view. It would be far better to appoint an interim leader as the party goes down to defeat. Then after the election coming hopefully by this spring the Liberals could have their leadership race.
Thank you for waking us up to the immediate challenge we face, and possible ways through it. I hope your ideas are widely shared and discussed internally. History shows that tariffs are easy to impose, but very hard to remove because vested interests start relying on them. I hope, as you suggest, the US administration will see them as short term power moves. But I have my doubt.
The only advantage of Pierre getting elected is Trump doesn't hate him yet. Pierre has already made it clear he has no plans to increase defence spending(I don't believe he has a plan for anything thinking Axe the Tax is the solution to all of Canada's problems).
Is dementia-ridden Trump even making decisions in the US? He needed the presidency to stay out of jail. Anything else that he does will be about enabling Putin.
Trudeau is a disaster, and an election should be called before the end of January unless they betray democracy by proroguing.
The concept of democracy on the planet is hanging by a thread because the average American voter voted against their own interests to re-install a serial lying traitor to the most important political institution on earth. Canda may not survive Trump. The US may not either.
The 25% tariff was announced as intended to compel Canada to fix two situations: opioids being smuggled into the US originating in Canada and also illegal immigrants crossing the US northern border from Canada. If Trump meant what he said, these tariffs are likely to persist until Canada corrects these two situations. The sooner we do that the sooner the tariffs get lifted. Is that not the case?
Thanks Andrew. As I said in that part of the essay, I think there will be a bit of both the cudgel approach to tariffs and the move to managed trade approach, so some tariffs will be dropped and others maintained in some form. That is what gives us the opportunity to drive towards removal or reduction. We shall see.
I've looked into both those issues and have to admit there doesn't look like there's much fentanyl crossing from Canada to the US. Illegal border crossings yes, but unfortunately it's in both directions. I'm very very curious to understand who and why trump has glommed-on to this as issues.
Some days have gone by and I’m with the consensus that believes trump lazily used the same issues against us as he did with Mexico, because in reality there’s very little to complain about regarding Canada. A few days ago he’d moved on to our banks. It’s all bs. I think he wants our country. I hope Canadians can stand strong and united, because that creature can make things quite difficult for us. Of course, we can also make things difficult for him…
As much as I have become tired of Justin and the Liberal party, I fear that Pierre will just roll over for a belly rub at Trump’s feet. Might there not be a more effective strategy if the provinces band together to address these probable issues with the new American leadership?
I like what you are getting at. I probably don't agree on the soft approach for talking to Americans. What would be very illuminating for the average American is to be literally hit over the head with a 2x4. Show them the after tariff price on a 2x4. They will get it because that's what Trump ran on.
Interesting perspective Erin. What's missing is as we postulate and moan about Trump; China's influence trajectory is encapsulating the rest of the world.
Very good point. I tried to make that point between 2018-2022. Some of what Trump has done on trade is smart, but as I have written elsewhere, the democratic west should work together. Free Trade amongst free peoples is what I used to say.
I think you may have found your niche for the next phase of your post politics career. Echoing those above…a well-thought out cogent perspective on where our country stands re Trump 2.0. I like the a) situation b) what i expect to happen c) what I hope happens approach. Looking forward to your next essay. We need informed perspective on important matters that are not guided by the need to sell ads. Well done
Great piece but it's naively hopeful that the administration guided by a meth-head adjudicated rapist and convicted fraudster will act rationally and normally.
One of the few we'll researched and reasoned approaches on Canada and dealing with the in-coming mess of Trump.
Too bad it's hidden in SubStack and outside the major news channels. Also, I'm not hearing this type of depth of thinking from those CPC's, including Poilievre, posting on social media, being interviewed online and on TV or stated as talking points in articles.
Please keep your foolish comments to X. This is for serious discussion.
A well-written and thoughtful essay. I await an intelligent adult government to protect our interests. Definitely not our present one.
Thoughtful, insightful, and clear-eyed; helping ordinary people understand the multitude of moving parts to all of this.
A mature response seems clearly to be the right response. Thank you.
Mr O’Toole has once again provided detailed analysis and information on the fast approaching Trump presidency. That as their closest neighbour and ally, Canada has sunk to a twin position with Mexico tells us how badly the Liberal government has bungled refugees, the border, national defense and our GDP where it’s sinking rate will be hard pressed to withstand Trump tariffs. As stated, we can only hope PM Trudeau will put Canada ahead of his inglorious ego and resign. The sooner we see a change in both parties and leadership, the sooner we can begin repairing our alliance with the U S.
The final comment is a troubling observation that has a lot of merit and a lot of misery to potentially foist upon the heads of western Canadians who are susceptible to the vindictive nature of Liberal politics.
If Trudeau wants to play the “tough” card for the political benefit, then an honest observation would be to acknowledge that it’s central Canadian voters who are being wooed. But if trade-offs are required for the political optics to win electoral support then the counterpoint to central Canadian interests are those of us west of Winnipeg who refuse to send Liberal MPs to Ottawa.
Much of the energy, natural resource and agricultural sector is based in supply/demand fundamentals. These are very important sectors of the diversified western Canada economy. Right now the supply/demand fundamentals have brought about the greatest market for live beef and beef products in my living memory. Economists who are analyzing the cattle on feed numbers and the national cowherd in Canada and the US predict strong market fundamentals for the next three years.
Quite frankly, I can see our Liberal government sacrificing the beef market, allowing huge tariffs that will crater the industry and deprive hard working ranchers a profit window that they have worked hard to achieve.
I do t think anything Trudeau does will succeed in wooing eastern voters. I can’t answer for Quebec mind you. Furthermore, Canadians need to remember we are a nation coast to coast, and sacrificing any province is not in our best interests. We need to stand up together for our great nation and not fracture ourselves by voting for selective self interest. Alberta’s economic achievements strengthen our nation. As does Ontario manufacturing and Maritimes oil and fishing and BC softwood, to name a few areas.
Trudeau is finished in politics.
I predict QC will vote Bloc. They want change as much as anyone, but Poilievre is very unpopular here.
I think the CPC will make strong inroads in parts of QC - les regions. Bloc v CPC race in that part of the province.
Why do you say so? For sure les régions are their own demographic. Eastern Townships are not Saguenay. Do you think it will be an anti-immigration sentiment?
Thank you for that detailed and somewhat reassuring explanation and prediction for what may face us with the incoming Trump administration. I expect that you are right with respect to tariffs on our aluminum, steel and energy products. I also agree that Trudeau will resign and likely by Wednesday, January 8 when the caucus will be meeting unless he eats some humble pie and manages to strike some further deal with Singh adding even more to our ballooning deficit all to save his sorry ass but under the guise of putting country before politics. If there is a leadership race, the latest Angus Reid poll shows the party would get the biggest jump in the polls with Ms Freeland as the next leader. Word is both she and Mark Carney are making many phone calls to Liberal MPs. Since she and Carney are old family friends with Carney being godfather to one of her children, I’m wondering if together they aren’t planning some sort of coup. Who knows? All’s fair in love and war as they say. What Canada doesn’t need right now is a months long Liberal leadership race that I believe would do nothing to boost anyone’s confidence in the party as it would bring out all sorts of internecine rivalries that so far have remained shielded for the most part from public view. It would be far better to appoint an interim leader as the party goes down to defeat. Then after the election coming hopefully by this spring the Liberals could have their leadership race.
That is interesting, thanks for bringing that information to my attention. Freeland has a lot of haters too. We'll see soon I hope.
Thank you for waking us up to the immediate challenge we face, and possible ways through it. I hope your ideas are widely shared and discussed internally. History shows that tariffs are easy to impose, but very hard to remove because vested interests start relying on them. I hope, as you suggest, the US administration will see them as short term power moves. But I have my doubt.
Thanks Kevin. Happy new year. Predictions are sometimes a mugs game, but I hope the wider discussion is helpful. This will be quite a year...
The only advantage of Pierre getting elected is Trump doesn't hate him yet. Pierre has already made it clear he has no plans to increase defence spending(I don't believe he has a plan for anything thinking Axe the Tax is the solution to all of Canada's problems).
Is dementia-ridden Trump even making decisions in the US? He needed the presidency to stay out of jail. Anything else that he does will be about enabling Putin.
Trudeau is a disaster, and an election should be called before the end of January unless they betray democracy by proroguing.
The concept of democracy on the planet is hanging by a thread because the average American voter voted against their own interests to re-install a serial lying traitor to the most important political institution on earth. Canda may not survive Trump. The US may not either.
The 25% tariff was announced as intended to compel Canada to fix two situations: opioids being smuggled into the US originating in Canada and also illegal immigrants crossing the US northern border from Canada. If Trump meant what he said, these tariffs are likely to persist until Canada corrects these two situations. The sooner we do that the sooner the tariffs get lifted. Is that not the case?
Thanks Andrew. As I said in that part of the essay, I think there will be a bit of both the cudgel approach to tariffs and the move to managed trade approach, so some tariffs will be dropped and others maintained in some form. That is what gives us the opportunity to drive towards removal or reduction. We shall see.
You should read the piece. Trump has mentioned a general tariff in the 10, 20 and 25 percent range. He has said a lot of things.
I've looked into both those issues and have to admit there doesn't look like there's much fentanyl crossing from Canada to the US. Illegal border crossings yes, but unfortunately it's in both directions. I'm very very curious to understand who and why trump has glommed-on to this as issues.
It is a good point, and a good question. I wish Erin would respond to you.
Some days have gone by and I’m with the consensus that believes trump lazily used the same issues against us as he did with Mexico, because in reality there’s very little to complain about regarding Canada. A few days ago he’d moved on to our banks. It’s all bs. I think he wants our country. I hope Canadians can stand strong and united, because that creature can make things quite difficult for us. Of course, we can also make things difficult for him…
As much as I have become tired of Justin and the Liberal party, I fear that Pierre will just roll over for a belly rub at Trump’s feet. Might there not be a more effective strategy if the provinces band together to address these probable issues with the new American leadership?
I like what you are getting at. I probably don't agree on the soft approach for talking to Americans. What would be very illuminating for the average American is to be literally hit over the head with a 2x4. Show them the after tariff price on a 2x4. They will get it because that's what Trump ran on.
Interesting perspective Erin. What's missing is as we postulate and moan about Trump; China's influence trajectory is encapsulating the rest of the world.
Very good point. I tried to make that point between 2018-2022. Some of what Trump has done on trade is smart, but as I have written elsewhere, the democratic west should work together. Free Trade amongst free peoples is what I used to say.
I think you may have found your niche for the next phase of your post politics career. Echoing those above…a well-thought out cogent perspective on where our country stands re Trump 2.0. I like the a) situation b) what i expect to happen c) what I hope happens approach. Looking forward to your next essay. We need informed perspective on important matters that are not guided by the need to sell ads. Well done
As dumb as Danielle, still.
Great piece but it's naively hopeful that the administration guided by a meth-head adjudicated rapist and convicted fraudster will act rationally and normally.
One of the few we'll researched and reasoned approaches on Canada and dealing with the in-coming mess of Trump.
Too bad it's hidden in SubStack and outside the major news channels. Also, I'm not hearing this type of depth of thinking from those CPC's, including Poilievre, posting on social media, being interviewed online and on TV or stated as talking points in articles.